The war in Ukraine, inflation, interest rates, employment rates and holidays all playing their part in house price changes.
First some macro-economic issues taking effect on the market.
- The war in Ukraine is continuing to push gas and food prices higher.
- Inflation in the UK was 9.4% in June and is predicted to go to around 13% in the next few months.
- The Bank of England (BOE) has raised interest rates for the sixth time in nine months by 0.5% to 1.75% to try and combat inflation. This has meant the interest rates being offered by mortgage lenders have gone up significantly.
- For March to May 2022 the jobs market continues to strengthen following the hit during Covid with the UK employment rate increasing by 4% to 75.9%, the unemployment rate decreasing by 0.1% to 3.8% and the number of job vacancies hitting 1,294,000.
July and August are traditionally quieter times in the property market as people go on holiday. This is especially true in 2022 as foreign holidays have been restricted for the past two years. This means less properties are put on the market and there is less buyer activity.
Rightmove reports that price of properties coming to the market in August 2022 are down 1.3% on the previous month, which is in line with the average over the past 10 years.
Rightmove also tells us buyer demand is easing but is still significantly higher than 2019 and the number of sellers is increasing slightly but is still well below 2019. Available stock is 39% less than in 2019.
So what is the market doing? Halifax tell us the market has gone down by 0.1% and Nationwide that it has gone up by 0.1%. Its safe to say the market is sitting still in July 2022.
Altrincham
This month we are looking at prices in Altrincham. According to Home.co.uk data the average selling price for a home in Altrincham is up 12% between May 2021 and May 2022.
Digging a bit deeper into the numbers the average price of a detached house is up by the most at 16%, whilst an apartment average sale price is down by 19%. This reflects a trend across the UK of people wanting more room and outside areas.
Predictions
The effect of high inflation and interest rates will filter into what people are prepared to pay for a property due to affordability restraints. However, a third of the market is made up of cash buyers which are not affected by the rate rise and affordability issues do not tend to affect the wealthier sections of the market proportionally. Interestingly Nationwide tells us first time buyers mortgage completions are now 5% above pre pandemic levels, which are defying the affordability pressures.
High inflation is not predicted to remain for an extended period, with fuel prices already below their peak, which will ease affordability restraints.
The jobs market is relatively strong suggesting forced sales which precipitate a market crash are unlikely to occur.
All in all, we think there might some easing of house price rises towards the end of 2022 but we are unlikely to see any significant price drops.
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