Now the kids are back at school, what is happening in the UK housing market?
The summer holidays are over, the buckets and spades have been packed away and Christmas decorations will soon hit a shop near you.
Our thoughts turn to what is going on with the housing market.
Well, some quick numbers for you:
- House prices down 0.8% in August and 5.3% since their peak in August 2022, according to Nationwide Building Society.
- The fall represents £14,600 on an average home.
- Inflation cooled to 6.8% in July. According to finance minister Jeremy Hunt it is still on track to halve by the end of 2023 to 5%.
- Mortgage rates are reducing – average 5 year rate is now 5.81%, down from 6.08% about three weeks ago.
- The number of mortgage approvals fell to its lowest level for five months in July. The Bank of England figures showed a decrease of 10% to 49,400 in July.
- Mortgage approvals are running 20% below the average for 2022.
- The number of available properties are 10% lower than at this time in 2019, according to Rightmove.
- Unemployment rate increased from 4.2% at the start of 2023 to 4.6% in June. Still historically low.
We thought we’d include a lovely graph and bar chart illustrating the pressure buyers who need a mortgage are under from Nationwide Building Society.
So what do the numbers tell us?
Stating the obvious, cash buyers are holding up better that other types of buyers as a proportion of the market, up 2% compared to the 2019 average. Home movers and first-time buyers needing a mortgage are 33% and 25% down respectively, compared to the 2019 average. Buyers who need to borrow to buy a home are under pressure due to the cost-of-living crises and higher interest rates.
The numbers also tell us that house prices haven’t dropped as sharp as many predicted, which is probably due to employment figures holding up relatively well.
With the falling house prices there is also the spectre of negative equity, where a property is worth less than the value of the mortgage attached to it. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) reported that 50,000 people had fallen into negative equity in the last 12 months. Recent buyers with smaller deposits are at risk of slipping into negative equity, however prices should rebound and those planning to stay in their homes for several years should not encounter serious problems.
Our Conclusions?
If there is not a pressing need to move many buyers are deciding to stay put and see how things are next year. Inflation and interest rates are likely to be lower in the coming 12 months taking the pressure off buyers who need a mortgage.
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